Probability
🏛 U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF)
✓ Free, no account · Source: Grants.gov · Last verified Sep 4, 2026
Can you apply?
This grant is for mathematical research focused on probability theory and its applications. The NSF Probability program supports fundamental research that advances understanding of stochastic processes, random phenomena, and probabilistic methods. Eligible applicants are typically faculty members at academic institutions, postdoctoral researchers, and established researchers at universities and research organizations within the United States. Awards support individual investigator research projects, collaborative efforts, and some specialized research groups. Both PhD and senior researchers may apply, though the emphasis is on researchers with established track records or those with strong institutional support. Geographic scope is limited to U.S. institutions and researchers, though international collaboration is permitted when U.S. institutions lead the project.
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Program description
The Probability Program supports research on the theory and applications of probability. Subfields include discrete probability, stochastic processes, limit theory, interacting particle systems, stochastic differential and partial differential equations, and Markov processes. Research in probability which involves applications to other areas of science and engineering is especially encouraged.
Conferences
Principal Investigators should carefully read the program solicitation "Conferences and Workshops in the Mathematical Sciences" (link below) to obtain important information regarding the substance of proposals for conferences, workshops, summer/winter schools, and similar activities. Conference and workshop proposals should be submitted eight months before the requested start date.
Who can apply
Eligible applicants
How to apply
Application links
Required documents
- NSF Form 424 (R&R) - Project Narrative and description of research
- Detailed project narrative (typically 15 pages maximum) outlining intellectual merit and broader impacts
- Budget and budget justification
- Current CV of principal investigator(s)
- Letters of collaboration or commitment (if applicable)
- Biographical sketches of all senior personnel
- Post-doctoral researcher mentoring plan (if applicable)
Program contact
- 👤 U.S. National Science Foundation
- 📧 grantsgovsupport@nsf.gov
- 📞 703-292-4203
Funding track record
Recent awards under CFDA 47.049 from the last 3 years — real organizations that won funding through this same program.
Top 10 Largest Recent Awards
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$570,618,065
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$482,311,346
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$415,151,013
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$236,459,999
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$190,969,692
-
$176,820,578
-
$156,947,247
-
$145,000,000
-
$144,261,921
-
$116,471,167
Top States by Funding
- VA 5 awards $965.8M
- DC 3 awards $632.1M
- AZ 8 awards $616.2M
- CA 12 awards $610.6M
- NY 7 awards $325.3M
Source: USAspending.gov — federal spending transparency. Data covers last 3 years.
Funding history
Annual funding for this program — Federal obligations (CFDA 47.049). How funding has trended year over year.
| 2024 | $1,539,910,000 | |
| 2025 | $1,537,650,000 | |
| 2026 est. | $512,280,000 |
FAQ
Who is eligible to apply for this grant?
Faculty members, postdoctoral researchers, and senior researchers at U.S. academic institutions are typically eligible. Some programs also accept graduate students with faculty mentors or researchers at national laboratories.
What is the typical funding range for Probability program awards?
NSF mathematical sciences programs typically award grants ranging from $100,000 to $500,000 depending on project scope and duration, though amounts vary by specific program track.
What types of research activities are supported?
The program supports fundamental research in probability theory, stochastic processes, random graph theory, limit theorems, and applications of probabilistic methods to other mathematical disciplines and sciences.
How competitive is this program?
NSF programs are highly competitive with success rates typically in the 20-30% range. Strong proposals demonstrate novel theoretical contributions, clear research objectives, and realistic timelines.
When are proposals due and what is the review timeline?
The 2025 deadline is September 15, 2026. NSF typically provides funding decisions within 4-6 months of the submission deadline, though this can vary.
💡 Tips for applicants
- Clearly articulate the intellectual merit of your research—NSF emphasizes novel theoretical contributions and methodological advances in probability theory.
- Demonstrate broader impacts by explaining how your research benefits society, influences education, or enhances understanding across scientific fields beyond pure mathematics.
- Use recent citations and position your work within the current landscape of probability research; show awareness of related work and how your proposal advances the field.
- Build a realistic project timeline with specific milestones; NSF reviewers look for achievable goals with clear deliverables.
- If collaborating with other institutions or researchers, clearly delineate roles, responsibilities, and budget allocation to show how the collaboration strengthens the project.
⚠️ Common mistakes
Applications often fail because they lack clear articulation of intellectual merit or present incremental contributions without sufficient novelty. Another common weakness is insufficient attention to broader impacts—reviewers expect researchers to thoughtfully explain how the work contributes beyond the immediate mathematical community. Lastly, unrealistic project scope or vague methodology can raise red flags; proposals must be technically feasible within the proposed timeline and budget.
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